Where is the Labor Force Going? NCCI’s Coate Looks at Aging, Frequency

Conference Insights

As the country is changing, so is the workforce, and currently, mid-career workers make up the largest chunk of the employment population in the U.S., which affects frequency of workers' compensation claims.

At NCCI's Annual Insights Symposium, Senior Economist Patrick Coate looked at trends among American workers and how they impact injuries on the job.

Bigger Picture

Coate noted that U.S. population growth, which comes from natural change and immigration, tells a story in which by 2030, deaths will exceed births. That means that population growth will come from immigration.

As far as the population that's here, the workforce shows changes in aging over the last 20 years. In 2005, the largest groups of workers were in their 40s or in their teens. Ten years later, there was a smaller chuck of teens and people in their 40s, but workers in their 50s and 60s made up the lion's share of the workforce.

"Workforce aging was the dominant story," Coate said.

For 2025, immigration and growth at younger ages was the strongest trend.

"What we've seen in the labor force is early-to-mid-career workers showing the largest growth," Coate said. "That's come from three sources: Millennials, immigrants, and prime age participation, which is near record highs."

The Future

Coate explained the in the years to come, the workforce will see an increase in older workers, a decline in middle age workers, and a significant decrease in younger workers.

"Where is the labor force going?" Coate said. "The biggest group will be past middle age, with workers 40 to 55, and we'll see fewer in the past-working age and new worker categories."

What about Frequency?

Coate noted that frequency is lowest for mid-career workers, with the 25-34 group make up the least amount of frequency, followed closely by workers between 35 and 44.

As workers age past 45, frequency "ticks up," especially in the 65-and-over range.

"Among those who stay, frequency increases," Coate said. "And this is an increasingly important part of the labor force."

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