What’s in Store for the Future? NCCI’s Tracy Ryan Keys in on AI, Healthcare

Conference Insights

Baseball legend Yogi Berra once famously quipped that "the future ain't what it used to be," and many people looking at the impact of AI on work and directions the economy has recently taken might be feeling the same way.

But at NCCI's Annual Insights Symposium, NCCI President Tracy Ryan cautioned that predictions help less than being ready to adapt to change.

The Mix

"Workers' compensation has always followed the work," Ryan said. "But now, growth might mean more workers, might not."

For example, manufacturing may see growth, but much of that growth could come from automation and technology without involving employment of many workers.

In other cases, traditional norms are going by the wayside.

"Clerical work has historically had a high share of employment, but that share is expected to decline," Ryan said. "The mix of jobs is likely to change."

Not only will the mix change, but how jobs work might take new shapes as well, which will affect workers' compensation.

"Jobs will be less about job titles and more about the work we do," Ryan said. "When work changes, the risk profile changes, too."

Not only will work be changing, but workers over 55 will continue to grow, "creating a different kind of exposure," Ryan said, where recovery is potentially longer and medical costs are potentially higher.

Healthcare

As both a segment of the economy and a factor in workers' compensation, healthcare is changing, Ryan noted.

"Healthcare is being reshaped by structural changes," she said. "We're seeing more investment from private equity and an increase in rural closures."

At the same time, more work in healthcare is coming from nurse practitioners and physician assistants as the industry faces a shortage of doctors.

Additionally, Ryan highlighted that care itself is changing, as treatment now tends to involve:

+ Ambulatory surgery centers instead of inpatient hospital procedures.

+ Wearable technology for real-time feedback on patient improvement.

+ Remote physical therapy.

+ Modified duty.

+ Connected personalized care.

"These trends could lead to better outcomes and earlier interventions, but rural closures raise questions about connectivity and whether workers have the support they need to use virtual tools," Ryan said.

AI

At this point, it's hard to argue that AI hasn't already made changes to work and workers' compensation and that it is primed to be more than "just another technology trend," Ryan explained.

Nonetheless, questions remain.

"How does it change work and risk profiles?" Ryan asked. "How does it change the work of workers' compensation?"

Just having AI tools won't make much difference is in the future, according to Ryan, but how organizations use those tools will.

"Access alone won't be the differentiator," Ryan explained. "But how they are implement and where human involvement comes in will determine success with AI."

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