NCCI Quarterly Economics Briefing (QEB) – Q3 2025 

In early August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the jobs report for July. The economy added 73,000 new jobs from June in the initial estimate, slightly below expectations of around 100,000. In addition to the July report, revisions were made to the May and June reports. Employment gains for April and May had been overestimated by 258,000 jobs. This brought the average jobs added to the economy down to 35,000 per month over the last three months (compared to the initial estimates of 150,000).

The state of the job market looked even more discouraging after the release of the August jobs report in early September. Just 22,000 jobs were added in the initial August estimate and further downward revisions to past data showed that job numbers in June actually declined. While job growth has been disappointing in recent months, these numbers alone do not tell the full story of the current state of the labor market.

In this brief, we will look at a broader swath of data to assess the labor market’s current state. In addition, we will outline several scenarios for how things may play out for the remainder of the year and what each scenario may mean for workers compensation.

Key Themes and Takeaways

• Recent disappointing job growth numbers have once again called in to question the health of the labor market
• Other labor market indicators, particularly measures of unemployment and job losses, show a less dire situation
• Uncertainty remains high for the labor market, and it is difficult to predict the most likely path forward based on current information

Check out the full Quarterly Economics Briefing to learn more.

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