NCCI’s Medical Inflation Insights – April 2026

WHAT: Aquarterly overview of what is driving changes in prices and how these changes may or may not impact workers compensation.

BIG PICTURE VIEW: Aggregate Measures of General and Medical Inflation

Prices for all items (headline CPI) surged in March, largely due to higher energy prices. The change in prices from the previous month was the largest increase since 2022. Excluding food and energy (core CPI), price growth was more moderate. While direct energy prices are excluded from core inflation, higher production and transportation costs for other goods and services may be passed through to consumers, potentially raising the trend in core inflation as well. The recent increase in oil prices is similar in magnitude to the increase experienced in early 2022. However, numerous other pandemic-related impacts contributed to the overall 2022 peak inflation of 9%. Based on current information, we do not see it as likely that inflation will approach those levels.

Changes in consumer-paid medical costs (CPI) outpaced those for other payer types (PPI) in early 2026. Prices for workers compensation medical services tend to follow the PPI more closely; however, this gap will be an interesting trend to watch given recent changes in the broader healthcare landscape.

MEDICAL PRICE TRENDS IN WORKERS COMPENSATION: Workers Compensation Weighted Medical Price Index

1. Workers compensation weighted price increases in the first quarter were more moderate than increases experienced in the broader economy. Based on our analysis, we believe that this low pace is unlikely to be sustained and that the WCWMI will trend closer to its 2024 and 2025 pace later this year.
2. Price growth for hospital outpatient care moderated in early 2026 from a year ago, reducing its contribution to overall workers compensation price increases. However, more recent monthly price increases have been consistent with the longer-term annualized trend of around 3.5%. Should this more recent trend of price increases continue, we would expect to see the WCWMI trend back up towards 2.5%.
3. Price growth for medical equipment and supplies accelerated in early 2026 and may be one of the first signs of tariff[1]related impacts on prices in these categories. In contrast, prices for drugs declined early in the year, likely a result of several federal government initiatives to keep prices contained.

VIEW THE FULL REPORT: Medical Inflation Insights - April 2026

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