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NCCI releases the Q3 2023 Quarterly Economics Briefing

27 Oct, 2023 NCCI

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WHAT: NCCI’s Quarterly Economics Briefing for Q3 2023 analyzes the state of the labor market and provides insights into the industry’s key question ­- is the labor market moving softly into balance or are we seeing early signs of deterioration toward recessionary conditions? In this Quarterly Economics Briefing (QEB), we will build off last quarter’s analysis of the consumer to help answer that key question. Based on the evolution of the data and the state of household finances broadly across the economy, we continue to see the economy moving toward balance rather than a recession, despite elevated risks.

WHO: The report is authored by Executive Director & Senior Economist Stephen Cooper, and Economists Patrick Coate and Yariv Fadlon

KEY INSIGHTS:

  • The labor market remains robust, characterized by an average of 266,000 net new jobs added over the past three months and strong annual wage growth of 4.2%, supporting premium growth in workers compensation.
  • Labor market statistics continue to improve with rising participation and more normalized turnover, taking some pressure off the economic drivers of workers compensation frequency.
  • The probability of a recession has diminished over the past quarter as consumer spending remains supported by strong employment levels, real income growth, further capacity for debt, and still-elevated excess savings.

ACCESS THE FULL REPORT: NCCI’s Quarterly Economics Briefing - Q3 2023


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