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At its Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) in May 2025, NCCI presented the State of the Line Report—a comprehensive assessment of the workers compensation (WC) insurance line of business. The results presented in that report reflect the most current data available at the time, including NCCI’s preliminary estimates for Calendar Year (CY) 2024. To support deeper understanding, the State of the Line Guide is also available, offering a slide-by-slide examination of the key insights, data sources, and formulas underlying the State of the Line presentation.
This report provides both updated results for 2024 and an early look at 2025.
Key Insights
Final workers compensation private carrier countrywide results:
- CY 2024 net written premium (NWP) decreased from 2023 by 3.2% (to $41.6 billion)
- The CY 2024 combined ratio was 86.1%, and the operating gain was 23.7%
Updated preliminary claim frequency and severity estimates for NCCI states:
- Accident Year (AY) 2024 claim frequency is expected to be 6% lower than 2023. The latest estimate is lower than the initial –5% AIS estimate.
- AY 2024 indemnity claim severity is estimated to be 5% higher than 2023, which is slightly lower than the initial +6% AIS estimate. The estimated AY 2024 medical lost-time claim severity increase remains at +6%.
While still early and subject to revision, preliminary analysis for private carriers through the second quarter of 2025 shows:
- CY 2025 direct written premium (DWP) decreased 1.9%, compared with the first half of 2024
- The CY 2025 direct loss ratio is 50%, two points higher than the first half of 2024
- The line is expected to have another strong year with continued underwriting gains in 2025 and a net premium volume similar to that observed in CY 2024
Overall, the workers compensation industry continues to exhibit signs of strong performance in CY 2025. The full-year view of 2025 results will be presented at AIS 2026, scheduled for May 11–13, 2026.
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