NCCI AIS Preview: The State of the Economy and Its Impact on WC Tuesday, May 12—1:00 p.m.–2:00 p.m. ET 

Stephen Cooper 
Practice Leader and Senior Economist, NCCI 

1. Why is this topic important for the industry? 

• The economy has been in the spotlight recently. While uncertainty around the path forward remains high, economic growth was resilient in 2025. Despite that resilience in economic growth, the labor market has been a different story. Employment growth has been volatile, a clear shift from the trends experienced several years ago. Economic conditions are especially important to the workers compensation industry because changes in employment and wages directly impact overall premium, while other economic indicators, particularly in the labor market, can affect claim frequency and severity trends. 

2. You mentioned that employment growth has been volatile. What are we seeing from the latest employment numbers?  

• Employment growth sharply rebounded in March from February’s disappointing levels. The three-month average of employment growth through March stood at 68,000 jobs per month overall and 79,000 jobs per month in the private sector. 

• This pace of growth is an improvement over what we saw in 2025 and may indicate that the labor market is starting to slowly recover from last year’s weakness. While encouraging to see, it is too early to be confident in this new trend. We’ll walk through the latest labor market indicators—and what they mean—during the session at NCCI’s Annual Issues Symposium (AIS) 2026. 

3. Beyond the labor market, what will this session cover? 

• The discussion centers on four themes: economic growth, the labor market, inflation, and a new forward‑looking component. This added section will take a look at the history of technological evolution and its impact on the labor market and use that as a foundation to consider the next frontier of technological innovation and what it could mean for the labor market of the future. 

4. Why did your team decide to add a looking ahead section this year? 

• We’ve heard from stakeholders that they value forward-looking insights. Adding a forward‑looking section creates space to step back and consider how longer‑term forces—such as shifts in the nature of work and technological change—may interact with economic trends over time. It’s not about forecasting specific outcomes, but about providing context and a framework for thinking about what could matter for the workers compensation system in the years ahead. 

5. What perspectives or insights will attendees gain after this session? 

• Attendees will leave with a clearer view of how recent economic developments show up in the workers compensation system. We’ll review what the data is telling us today, and what we may see moving forward. 

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