Rousmaniere: Where will injuries occur in 2022?

Workforce growth in the United States is barely 1% a year. Work injury frequency continues to decline. Where can an insurer or TPA look to find any growth in business that is not by taking it away from others? 

There are, in fact, several major occupational groups which are growing much faster than the rest, and which also bear a higher than average injury risk. A remarkable five job clusters, responsible for about 30% of lost time compensable injuries today, are indeed growing in numbers of workers. 

We will summarize their workforce growth and injury risk.  And we will look at how technology may impact these jobs, in three ways:  replacing workers with robots and other devices; helping workers avoid injury; and, helping injured workers to recover. 

Worker replacement by technology explains some workforce changes over time, such as in manufacturing, yet its impact in the near future is speculative. So caution in prediction is warranted looking forward to, say, through 2022. 

The same degree of caution is required when predicting new safety technology and in rehabilitation technology. So way bother? Because those in corporate leadership positions are called upon to look well ahead in order not to be blindsided by complacency. 

In the thumbnail profiles which follow, I draw upon government employment projections through 2022. I also draw upon the remarkable database of a Canadian firm, MyAbilities, which has scored the relative physical demands of jobs, as they relate to musculoskeletal injury, which is the dominant type of injury in these jobs. And I draw on other benchmarks as well as personal observations of some workers’ comp professionals. 

I order the profiles in rough descending order of their potential to add work injury risk. 

Construction laborers 

This class of construction worker provides more employment than there are electricians, carpenters, and painters combined.  Their numbers are growing towards about 2.4 million in 2022.  One third of them are foreign born, double the economy-wide participation of immigrants. About 5% of lost time compensable injuries occur within this occupation. 

MyAbilities assesses musculoskeletal injury risk thorough its physical demand scoring system for just about every job in the country. A score of 97 out of 100 means that the job has greater physical demands than 97% of all jobs in the database. The score for construction laborers is 99. The company says that these workers engage most of the day in 10 of the eleven physical tasks it tracks.    

Thinking abstractly, with no regard for how these jobs are filled and compensated, they may appear to be replaceable in time by robots and other devices. But that seems unlikely for some time. 

However, their physical effort can now be precisely monitored using wearable monitoring devices. These devices are commercially available from a growing number of vendors.  Dorsavi, an Australian firm which has been active in the American market for some years, has designed its small, strategically placed monitoring devices to measure how often a worker’s physical exertion places her or him into a “red zone.”  These behaviors can be reduced through a combination of worker training and carefully chosen assistive resources. According to Dorsavi, reducing red zone activity appears to reduce work injuries in proportion. 

Janitors and industrial housekeepers 

This group of occupations accounts for about 7% of lost time injuries in the country.  In 2022 they will number 3.1 million workers, of which about 30% are foreign born. MyAbilities assigns to these jobs a physical demand score of 97.  

These jobs are theoretically less subject to replacement by robots than are construction labor jobs. But they can use wearable monitoring devices for injury prevention. And, these devices can, as with construction work, guide the injured worker more safely back to fullest possible recovery. I have been following the emergence of these devices for some time, and have yet to encounter a full blown application of them in injury recovery and return to work. 

Warehouse laborers 

These workers engage in what is commonly referred to as material handling. There will be about 2.6 million occupants of this job in 2022. They account for about 7.5% of all lost time compensable injuries. The ranks are about 15% foreign-born. 

The physical demand score that MyAbilities sets is 88. While I have no supporting data I expect that the risk level among warehouse workers varies drastically by organization of the workplace and by use of technology to store, retrieve and move materials.  Wearable monitoring devices could make a big impact. 

Inpatient nursing support jobs 

This job cluster includes nurse assistants, which in 2022 will number about 1.7 million. They may account for 6% of all lost time compensable injuries. Incidentally, these are the first jobs included in this list of jobs that require not only a high school degree but some type of post high school certification. The foreign-born participation rate is probably about 20%.   

The physical demand level, per MyAbilities, at 69, is the lowest we have encountered so far. That score reflects the fact that lifting (as in moving patients) is relatively infrequent. Patient mobility equipment and wearable monitoring devices can significantly cut down the risk of lifting accidents. The equipment has been available in matured design for some years.  The monitoring devices are just entering the patient care field. 

Maids and lodging cleaners 

In 2022 there will be 1.9 million of these workers, half of whom are foreign-born today. They account for 4% of lost time compensable injuries. Their physical demand score per MyAbilities of 97 stems from the long hours they engage in lifting, pushing and pushing. Clearly these workers can be helped with monitoring devices. What about other technology? An expert in hotel housekeeping tells me about a device which assists cleaners with lifting a mattress when changing the sheets. Also, some hotel chains have introduced smaller and much lighter carts, easier to maneuver and to roll with less weight on them. 

In sum, these five job clusters will be responsible for one-third of lost time compensable injuries in 2022, among the 160 million civilian workers. Here is where the demand upon the workers’ comp system is growing. Technology probably will trim away many injuries. The question is how technology will be introduced successfully, and also, whether insurers and TPAs are mentally preparing for that to happen.

Share This Article: