2024 NCCI AIS – Day One Morning – Stunning Numbers

29 May, 2024 James Moore

                               

2024 NCCI AIS – Annual Insights Symposium – First Morning Sessions

Thanks to Cristine Pike and Madison White for inviting me back to this year’s 2024 NCCI AIS.  They are excellent contacts for anything you want to know about NCCI.  As you may already know, most of this was posted live or almost live with a few post-conference edits.   If there are any typos or mistakes, please let me know in the comments.

The first-day afternoon AIS session report can be found at this link. 

I will include some of the charts from the sessions. The statistics were surprising to say the least.  I will add the “stunning-number” charts from the 2024 NCCI State of the Line session later in this article.

Session 1 – Presidents Message – The Source You Trust

Bill Donnell, CPCU | President and CEO

Bill announced his retirement earlier this year 2025.  This session was his last as President and CEO of NCCI.  NCCI has come a long way under his leadership.  The announcement of his 2025 pending retirement can be found here.

Two  of the quotes from his presentation were:

  • “NCCI is strong and prepared for the future. The workers compensation system has unique features that have differentiated us from other commercial lines in terms of overall performance during the past several years. However, there are key questions ahead related to issues such as frequency trends and medical cost inflation.”
  • “When this system is at its best, it is healthy, resilient, and caring.”

The word “caring” stuck with me after the end of the Symposium.  Even though a large number of statistical analyses occurred during the 1.5  days of presentations, the ultimate goal remains a gainful return to work by an injured worker = caring.

2nd Session- 2024 NCCI AIS – State of the Line

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA | Chief Actuary

Donna answered or directed me to the person to answer my questions this year as in the past four years.  At the end of the conference, she made sure that all my questions had been answered fully.  Her efforts were much appreciated.

Donna covered much ground in her presentation.

Quotes

The overall numbers for workers compensation show a financially healthy system.

Key Insights:

  •  Workers compensation premium increased 1% in 2023.
  • The Calendar Year 2023 combined ratio for workers compensation is 86%, a sign of underwriting profitability for the system.
  • Workers compensation’s Accident Year 2023 combined ratio is 98% with prior years continuing to experience downward reserve development.
  • The workers compensation reserve redundancy grew to $18 billion.
  • Lost-time claim frequency declined by 8% in the past year, which is more than two times the size of the long-term average decline.

Severity changes were considered moderate for 2023 with increases of 2% for medical claim severity and 5% for indemnity claim severity.

Commitment of Stakeholders = Success

Seven Years of Operating Profits

47.6 Billion Net Written Premium

Residual Market Shrinking – Difficult to Place Employers Finding Policies in The Voluntary Market

Transportation Payroll Increased the Most – Year to Year

Fee Schedule – Medicare-based Medical Fee Schedule States Have Lower Medical Costs

Drugs declined from 12% to 7% of WC Medical Spend – Likely Opioid Reduction

20 Years of Wages

Shocking/Stunning Numbers – Frequency Wins

Frequency fell 8% in 2023 – 17% since 2018

Why such a post-pandemic decrease in frequency?  Safety always absolutely wins. The two charts below show the continuing downward frequency trend that has been in place for at least 20 years.

2024 NCCI AIS Chart Claim Frequency by Year
c) NCCI Boca Raton FL – used with permission
2024 NCCI AIS Chart For Cumulative Workers Comp Claim Frequency Reduction
(c) NCCI – Boca Raton, FL – used with permission

If you want to see more of the numbers and charts, I recommend using these two links – worth your time to review them on the Workers Comp system’s past, present, and future. NCCI’s State of the Line Report and the State of the Line Guide.

3rd Session 2024 NCCI AIS- State of the Line Dialogue With NCCI’s Experts

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA
Nadege Bernard, FCAS

Nadege possesses two degrees that she attained simultaneously – one in nursing and another in actuarial science.

  • “Loss costs have been declining as wages rise and claim frequency improves.

Key Insights from the

  • The bureau level decreases we are observing are mainly due to the loss cost changes— the portion of the premium responsible for covering indemnity and medical costs in the system.
  • Workers compensation premiums are based on an inflation-sensitive exposure base: payroll. When wages outpace costs, rate and loss cost level decreases are indicated.
  • Frequency continues its long-term decline. The continued focus on worker safety and technological advancements are contributing to fewer workplace injuries over time. Overall premium growth also supports this continued decline.

Since 2009, both medical and indemnity severity changes have been considered moderate, contributing to more pronounced decreases.

Bottom Line – The 2024 NCCI AIS morning sessions had so much good news about the Workers Comp industry in the post-pandemic era.

By James Moore

Courtesy of J&L Risk Management Consultants


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