How Workers Comp Claims Pandemic Data Is Only 25% Correct
Workers Comp Claims Pandemic Data – Running With 1/4 In The Tank
I recently brought this up in a Zoom(r) meeting. A potential client wanted me to assist in building a Workers Comp claims pandemic model.
Public Domain – US Marine Corp
They were aghast when I said that only approximately 1/4 of the data is in right now on the pandemic if rating bureau data is used for the model.
Simple Workers Comp Claims Pandemic Data Chart
Date Reported To Bureau
The date the data is reported to the bureau is called the UNIT STAT date.
Three questions came up in the meeting.
Why did I not include the 4/1/19 to 4/1/2020 policy?
Why is it 25% when your fraction shows 50%?
Why are you using 2019 policies?
My corresponding answers were:
I considered the start of the pandemic 04/01/2020. The Workers Comp claims pandemic data should start there. The policies that covered 04/01/2019 – 04/01/2020 would not cover any pandemic dates. I could have used 04/02/2019 or 04/03/2019, etc. but the chart would have been massive.
The chart could have been continued through today, but the numbers reported to the rating bureau (right column) have not been reported after 04/01/2021. The policies after 10/20/2020 would have to be included up until today to complete a year of the pandemic (as requested). So only 50% of 6/12 would be considered as workers comp pandemic data info.
These policies partially covered the pandemic months. As of now, the rating bureaus have received policy data through 10/15/2020 – at the height of the pandemic.
Chart Updates Will Be Needed – End Of Pandemic?
I did not want to go beyond the recent UNISTAT reporting date of 04/01/2021 – the right column. I am not sure of the exact date that the pandemic will end. Some scientists say that we are in an endemic now, not a pandemic in the US.
One concept to remember is not all claims were COVID-19 claims. I was pointing to the effect on the workers comp pandemic data.
This blog post is provided by James Moore, AIC, MBA, ChFC, ARM, and is republished with permission from J&L Risk Management Consultants. Visit the full website at www.cutcompcosts.com.
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